Thursday Theriots for 2/21/13 – Fantasies do come true

Hey everyone. Seems like there’s a lot to talk about on the fantasy side of the ledger today, so let’s get to it…

ESPN just released its big fantasy package this evening. I always find this to be a great starting point for figuring things out in each of my leagues. What’s really key for me is the auction values they provide. There’s so much variation compared to the auction league that I’m actually in that the next link really helps…

Complete ZiPS projections. It’s the most exhaustive prediction system out there, so if you’re going to pick one to use, this is it.

So the basic strategy as I see it this year. Start with ESPN, update based on ZiPS, modify the numbers to fit the league. Hopefully in some meaningful way. I mean, it can’t go worse than last year…

Definitely suggest checking out Eno Sarris’ Thursday chat on Fangraphs. Lots of fantasy questions, plus a healthy amount of beer.

Patrick Dubuque has a great line related to fantasy and real life:

Your daily life plays a factor in how you build your roster. I can speak of this from experience: as a young naïve college student, I was once free to scour the internet for changes in the wind, and kept myself on top of all the latest rumors. In my twenties, from my cubicle, I could still check every once in a while when I knew the boss wasn’t wandering the halls. Now, my vocation keeps me away from the computer, and baseball essentially dies for eight to ten hours at a time, long enough of a span for both my closers to lose their jobs and get traded for each other as long relievers.

That’s basically how I feel these days. I have an hour at lunch to check non-work things. I’m lucky to spend a few minutes updating my rosters, then catching up on Fangraphs and ESPN.

And to end this all, my other league, which does a slow offline draft with numerous keepers, has started to ramp up. Decisions on keepers are due in a week. More on that in another post…

What I’m reading today…

I wanted to pass on a few interesting links from things I’m reading today.

Overthinking it (BP)  – Think you can make a reasonable trade offer for Giancarlo Stanton? So did these guys…

Keith Law chat transcript – I’m always working when these go on, but they’re full of insight. And Top Chef. And snark.

ZiPS Projections for the Astros (FG) – Because, you know, it’s never too early to study up on 23rd round draft picks. Ok, ok, like everyone else I’d be happy to have Lowrie and Altuve, but boy does Luhnow have a huge hill to climb. Just look at how many more wins their move to the AL West means to teams in that division.

Writers Who Refuse to Vote for the Hall of Fame (FG) – I mean to write a post about the Hall of Fame, though I’m running out of time and will likely just have the same ten guys as KLaw. But this is interesting, because it mentions a fact that’s usually overlooked. Namely that once you get a HoF vote, you vote until you’re dead, no matter if you cover the game still or not.

The Changing Value of Draft Picks (FG) – Something I hit on briefly yesterday. Draft pick compensation is just silly, and not likely to change anytime soon as the players don’t have the motivation to help those not in their union.

Greatest Final Seasons (BtBS) – My first thought is Mike Mussina, as he reached the magical 20-win mark finally. (If you think that pitcher wins matter, I encourage you to stop visiting this site.) I grew up a huge Mussina fan, until he broke our hearts and went to the Yanks.

That’s it for today. Anything else out there that you’ve seen recently that’s piqued your interest?